Hakan Fidan Lives In His Own World
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Written by Damir Nazarov
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan gave an interview to the Saudi TV channel Al-Sharq, where he tried to “give a lecture on political science” to the Iranians, and it turned out to be extremely ridiculous. Hakan Fidan tried to “teach” the Iranians what to do in the “new Syria”, and his arguments looked quite naive and stupid.
The Turkish Foreign Minister stumbled again, for the second time. The first time was when, in an interview with a Turkish channel, to the question “Has Israel won in Syria?”, Fidan answered – “It depends on how you look at it“. In short, he acknowledged the fact of the Zionists’ victory. The second blunder of the Turkish Foreign Minister happened now, when he decided to send a message to the Iranians through a Saudi channel, where he began to rant about “new opportunities for the Iranians in Syria”, as well as the rapprochement of interests between Iran and Turkey in this Arab country.
Why did I come to this conclusion? Because earlier Fidan was being clever about Assad’s presence inside the Axis of Resistance, saying that “there is no place for him there.” Yes, it may be true, and the Iranians had no illusions, but they had no alternative to Assad because of Syria’s regional isolation, which the Turks had put a lot of effort into. And now we see that the new Syrian regime has reached rock bottom in its “confrontation with Zionism.” The Turks, the SNA and the HTS clearly did not expect that Zionism would destroy all of Assad’s military equipment in a matter of hours and occupy southern Syria all the way to Damascus. I just want to ask Mr. Fidan: “Is the Tahrir al-Sham regime the same alternative to Assad that you offered the Iranians?”
The sharp Saudi activity in Syria also became the reason why Fidan began to actively invite the Iranians to Syria. Turkey knows very well the capabilities of the Saudis and the treacherous nature of yesterday’s jihadists (HTS), and then there are the problems with the SDF that threaten to turn into a conflict with the collective West and the Zionists. For these reasons, Fidan is “flirting” with Tehran.
Even if we assume that the Turks will secretly assist Iranian developments inside Syria, it is obvious that, first of all, a lot of questions will arise for Ankara. After all, the Iranians are closely monitoring what is happening and clearly see how easily the Turks can “betray” even their brothers (Turkmens) before the new dictatorship (HTS), since, in Ankara’s opinion, it is more profitable to cooperate with the former Al-Qaeda than to feed the SNA groups. In addition, the “friendship” that has begun with the jihadists is a “plan B” for the Turks, but there are no prerequisites for this strategy to be successful. Now imagine if tomorrow the Iranians revive their proxies throughout Syria, for example, in the form of cultural and religious organizations or a political party, what will happen then? The autocracies of the Persian Gulf will allocate billions of dollars to suppress “pro-Iranian parties,” and what will Erdogan’s allies do? It is obvious that they will side with the Arab autocracies, so Hakan Fidan has clearly overestimated his expectations and clearly did not think about what his cooperation with Iran in the “new Syria” would look like. And what would cooperation between the parties look like even without taking into account political issues, if HTS has established a dictatorship for at least 4 years? When we consider the situation in the context of relations between the former Jabhat Nusra and Iran, we should not forget how HTS constantly tries to curry favor with the Zionists when it declares that it “catches weapons smuggling from Iran to Lebanon.” Plus violence against minorities in Syria, reprisals against Sunnis of various categories (former soldiers of SAA, civilians, and even former members of the FSA), rabid sectarian anti-Shiite rhetoric, the lack of unity within their organization and the presence of any adequate ideology, all this and much more makes possible diplomatic relations between Iran and HTS practically impossible. Therefore, Hakan Fidan clearly underestimates the situation and is openly in a hurry to “try on” HTS and the Islamic Republic.
When thinking about the future interaction between Iran and Turkey in the Syrian arena, one can be sure that the parties will come to a consensus, but in what direction and for what reasons? For example, the Iranians always talk about the need to cooperate with all regional powers in the anti-Zionist direction. However, Fidan has already indicated that he sees Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq as allies in this matter. These countries, with the exception of Iraq, are the closest allies of Zionism, the only one missing is Qatar. It is strange that Fidan did not mention the participation of the smallest emirate. That is, what we see here is more disagreement than a step towards each other.
So how do the Turks see the “convergence of interests” with the Iranians? A common view of the fight against ISIS and the PKK. Although even the fight against the self-proclaimed “Rojava” will be measured by Erdogan’s relationship with Trump. I note that as soon as it became clear that the Pentagon would continue to cooperate with the SDF, Fidan declared the “need to cooperate with Iran in Syria.” Ankara is trying to play between the main antagonists of the region, but will this not lead to serious consequences?
Another point of common “interest” is participation in the Chinese Silk Road. Here, everything is more or less clear, since Beijing is the main interested party in the process of maximum rapprochement between Ankara and Tehran, there are no separate merits of the Turks here, and cooperation will extend with an emphasis on the economic sphere under the auspices of China.
In conclusion, I will note that the Turkish approach to Iran in Syria is dictated by the level of Ankara’s dependence on the US and China. If the neocons’ policy is in conflict with Erdogan, Ankara will “blackmail” Washington with its cooperation with the Iranians, but if the Yankees remain neutral, there will be no progress between Turkey and Iran. The situation with China is different, there the Celestial Empire will make maximum use of the Trump administration’s mistakes and force all regional powers to seek a compromise on Syria. Hakan Fidan clearly won’t tell us about these nuances.
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