Tuesday, 8 October 2024

 

Putin Speaks

Part one: New Russia’s open heart



Part one: New Russia’s open heart

Putin's leadership marked a break with the Soviet-system, in that his political career didn't begin in the USSR. In fact, he'd spent most of the 1980s working as a KGB officer in East Germany.

By the time he quit the service in 1991, he was already working for the liberal mayor of St Petersburg Anatoly Sobchack, where he was responsibile for promoting international relations and foreign investment.

During his first term, Putin was considered a Westerniser and he formed friendly relations with the US and its allies.

He viewed international terrorism as a common threat which not only affected Russia (which in those years suffered from frequent attacks by radical islamic militants) but also impacted the wider world after the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York.

Although relations between Russia and the West were quite friendly in the early 2000s, mostly due to Putin’s initially warm personal relationships with his Western counterparts (including US President George W. Bush and UK Prime Minister Tony Blair), there were still divisive issues. For example, the Russian president was critical of Washington’s withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, he complained about the expansion of NATO, and expressed regret that while the West said that it was ready for equal dialogue with Moscow, those words weren’t backed by actions, in his view.

Putin’s changing views on international politics, as the decade progressed, were best expressed in his speech at the Munich Security Conference in February 2007. World media described the historic address as his biggest criticism of the US and the West thus far. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, some observers warned that a similar conflict could resume, although at that point, no one seriously believed that it could happen again.

“IT’S HARD FOR ME TO ENVISION NATO AS AN ENEMY.” — PERSPECTIVES OF RUSSIA’S SECOND PRESIDENT
March 5, 2000

During his first year in office, Vladimir Putin became the focus of scrutiny both globally and in Russia. In numerous interviews with international and Russian media and in his official speeches, he articulated his vision of the world: Russia is a European power, the Cold War should be left in the past, and relations with the West ought to be cooperative — so much so that even Moscow’s potential accession to NATO couldn’t be ruled out.

“​​RUSSIA AND THE US MAY WELL BE ALLIES.” — PUTIN’S STANCE ON WASHINGTON
June 16, 2001

Following the election of the George W Bush as US president, the world held its breath, wondering whether Moscow and Washington could find common ground.

The looming threat of a key missile defense treaty expiring and debates about NATO’s role and expansion filled the air. But when the two presidents met, they quickly established a friendly rapport, which sparked optimism. However, underlying tensions between their nations remained unresolved.

THE RUSSIAN LEADER ON TERRORISM: “WE’LL WHACK THEM IN THE OUTHOUSE.”
September 24, 1999

The early 2000s were marked by widespread fear of international terrorism. Having faced this issue since the 1990s, Russia understood the gravity of the situation better than most. Putin was the first world leader to extend condolences to the US president after the September 11 attacks. Yet, Russia itself would experience horrific tragedies, like the Beslan school siege in 2004, when terrorists took over a school on the first day of classes, holding over a thousand hostages, many of whom were children.

PUTIN IN THE BUNDESTAG: “RUSSIA’S STRONG, LIVING HEART IS OPEN TO TRUE COOPERATION.”
September 25, 2001

Vladimir Putin’s address to Germany’s parliament, predominantly delivered in German, marked what could be seen as his inaugural international policy statement. He spoke about a shared future for Russia and the rest of Europe, urging German lawmakers and all Western partners to move beyond the Cold War mentality and recognize that Russia is a European state and essential to the global security architecture. He concluded with a passionate declaration that "Russia’s powerful, living heart beats and is open to genuine cooperation and partnership." His speech earned a standing ovation, and Ulrich Klose, head of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee, joyfully remarked that he could no longer rule out Russia joining NATO.

“RUSSIA’S INTEGRATION INTO EUROPE IS OUR HISTORICAL CHOICE.” — THE PRESIDENT DEFINES A GEOPOLITICAL DIRECTION
May 16, 2003

Putin’s position, established at the start of his first term, remained consistent for several years. He nurtured hopes for a united European family, where Russia, other former Soviet states, and Western European countries would collaboratively build a bright future, free from cold or hot wars. While expressing some reservations, Putin was nonetheless prepared to accept NATO’s possible expansion, consistently emphasizing the necessity of forging a new architecture of trust both in Europe and globally.

“THERE ARE PEOPLE OUT THERE WHO DO NOT WISH RUSSIA WELL.” — TENSIONS RISE BETWEEN MOSCOW AND THE WEST
February 1, 2007

Over the years, Vladimir Putin had become increasingly disappointed with the West. Frustrated by a lack of reciprocity to Russia’s overtures, the president began to shift his rhetoric. With the West unwilling to forge a common security architecture, Putin emphasized the need to bolster Russia’s defense capabilities. Obstacles in relations with the West multiplied: Moscow was concerned about NATO’s plan to deploy missile defense systems in former Warsaw Pact countries, while the West criticized the Kremlin for leveraging economic tools to achieve its foreign policy goals. Despite this cooling of relations, Putin maintained that Russia did not seek confrontation with its partners.

PUTIN IN MUNICH: “YOU ARE TRYING TO IMPOSE NEW DIVIDING LINES AND WALLS ON US.”
February 10, 2007

Putin’s speech in Munich, delivered near the end of his second presidential term, landed like a bombshell. It marked one of the sharpest critiques of US foreign policy, NATO, and European security since the Cold War. It was also the first hint that Moscow might re-align itself toward what is now known as the “Global South.”

Almost immediately, the address was deemed historic, with some politicians and media comparing it to Winston Churchill’s "Fulton Speech," which heralded the onset of the Cold War. However, Putin’s main message wasn’t a call for confrontation but rather an appeal for a multipolar world where nations are treated as equals, free from outside coercion.

Part two: The era of cold peace

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Part two: The era of cold peace

Attempts to build an alliance had clearly failed. Moscow and the West weren’t able to find common ground: NATO kept moving closer to Russia’s borders while the Kremlin’s protests were ignored.

Relations between the two sides at this point could be best described as a "cold peace."

The biggest tensions arose around the situation in the Middle East, which plunged into chaos following the Arab Spring uprisings. And yet, despite different approaches and views, Moscow still maintained a productive dialogue with Western Europe and the US.

Things changed in 2014, when the pro-Western Maidan coup in Ukraine aggravated the situation.

The political forces that came to power in Kiev openly proclaimed anti-Russian views. In response, the residents of Crimea — a peninsula mostly populated by ethnic Russians — voted in favor of reuniting with Moscow. Major sanctions were imposed on Russia, and it started to become politically estranged from the West.

These major upheavals, however, did not destroy the post Cold War order — trade continued, and bilateral relations were not disrupted. There were hopes that the Ukraine crisis could be settled by means of the Minsk Agreements — diplomatic treaties intended to settle the contradictions between the pro-Russian and pro-Western parts of the country.

Moscow hoped that Kiev would honor the agreement, but it was later confirmed — by signatories Angela Merkel, Francois Hollander and Pyotr Poroshenko — that the Ukrainians never intended to fulfil any of their obligations.

Putin's question to the West: “How long can we put up with this? Eventually there will have to be a reaction.”
February 14, 2008

By the end of his second presidential term, Vladimir Putin's stance had solidified. He maintained that Russia should be a trustworthy and reliable partner, an open nation willing to collaborate with countries across the globe. However, he was no longer willing to ignore, what Moscow saw, as threats to national security posed by the West. Increasingly, his speeches included warnings about the potential consequences of reckless policies pursued by the United States and its allies, highlighting their double standards. The West interpreted Moscow's reluctance to make further unilateral concessions as aggression, but Putin patiently tried to clarify that this was not the case.

Putin's mindset in the new decade: “The US is creating a threat to our security, and we’ll be forced to respond accordingly.”
December 2, 2010

Putin spent four years out of the Kremlin – serving as prime minister to Dmitry Medvedev – yet contrary to allegations that he was personally responsible for the chill in relations with the West, no improvement occurred under his successor. On the contrary, NATO continued to move closer to Russia’s borders, and US interventions in sovereign nations undermined global stability. A new point of tension emerged right at Russia's doorstep — Ukraine. Putin continued to assert that if Moscow perceived any actions from its Western partners as potentially threatening, it would have no choice but to respond.

Putin on Middle Eastern events: “Change shouldn’t come with bloodshed.”
September 6, 2012

The turmoil in the Middle East during the early 2010s coincided with Russia's re-entry into major global politics. In this context, Moscow's involvement in the Syrian conflict played a crucial role in reinforcing its international standing. Russia demonstrated its ability to project its national interests and values far beyond the more limited sphere of influence it retained after the Cold War. A principle, repeatedly emphasized by Putin, is straightforward: Western military intervention in the internal affairs of independent states has brought nothing but bloodshed.

Putin’s Crimea Speech: “Russia found itself in a position it could not retreat from.”
March 18, 2014

In November 2013, following Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich's refusal to sign an association agreement with the EU, mass Western-backed protests erupted in Kiev. Within a few months, the situation escalated into a full-blown violent coup, resulting in dozens of deaths and the president fleeing the country. The nationalist rhetoric of the usurpers and incidents of attacks against Crimeans who opposed the upheaval compelled the region’s authorities to take decisive action. Within weeks, a referendum on independence and reunification with Russia was organized. Two days later, in the Kremlin’s Georgievsky Hall, Vladimir Putin delivered his now-famous "Crimea speech," in which he elaborated on how the West's reckless actions had led to this turning point.

Putin’s Valdai Speech: “Essentially, the unipolar world is simply a means of justifying dictatorship over people and countries.”
October 24, 2014

Less than a year after the events in Crimea, Russia found itself under intense political and economic pressure. This compelled Putin to articulate more clearly a question he had been raising in his speeches for years: can the unipolar order that the US is trying to impose on the world truly be fair, comfortable, and secure for all nations? In contrast to American dominance, the Russian president advocated for a multipolar world and international negotiations on the basis of equality, suggesting this could unlock a new global balance.

Putin at the UN: “This is not about Russia's ambitions; it’s about acknowledging that we can no longer accept the current global situation.”
September 28, 2015

Seventy years after the establishment of the cornerstone of international relations — the United Nations — Vladimir Putin addressed the organization's anniversary session, reiterating that its potential remains untapped and that the UN should play a central role in global governance. The main obstacle to this, Putin identified as relentless US pursuit of superiority on the world stage, often by backing dubious factions around the globe. He emphasized the need for an international coalition to combat terrorism and put an end to atrocities being committed by militants worldwide. Iran's President Hassan Rouhani immediately backed Putin’s proposals. The following day, Putin met with Barack Obama to discuss the Middle East and Ukraine. Just two days after Putin's address, Russia launched a military operation in Syria aimed at combating ISIS.

Putin unveils new Russian weapons: “Nobody wanted to listen to us. So listen now.”
March 1, 2018

By 2018, the most active phase of the Syrian operation had successfully concluded, and doubts about Russia's military prowess were fading. But it was just the beginning. In his annual address to the Russian parliament, Putin unveiled – previously only hinted at – countermeasures to decades of the Americans installing missile defense systems in Western Europe. That day, the world learned of Russia's new hypersonic warheads, long-range missiles, underwater nuclear drones, and combat laser systems. Yet even in this belligerent moment, the president maintained a calm tone, continuing to advocate for talks based on mutual respect.

Putin announces constitutional reform: “Russia can be, and can remain Russia only as a sovereign state.”
January 15, 2020

By 2020, Vladimir Putin had established himself as one of the most influential politicians globally, having been in power across two decades. He initiated a series of constitutional reforms – which he said were driven by concerns for domestic stability amid a deteriorating geopolitical climate. By this point, the president had clearly decided that matters were coming to a head in terms of asserting Russia’s sovereignty. 

Part three: The dawn of a new world order

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Part three: The dawn of a new world order

The current Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky, who came to power after campaigning on a promise to establish peace in Donbass, instead embarked on a course of increasing militarization. This led Putin to make formal proposals to the West for a new European Security architecture. They were essentially ignored.

On February 22, 2022, Putin launched what he termed a "Special Military Operation" — a military offensive to eliminate the threat posed by Kiev.

The conflict has since become a major factor in the drive for a multipolar world. Russia has urged the countries of the "Global Majority" to come together to end the West’s hegemony and instead build a new more equitable order.

Putin recognizes the independence of Donbass: “Russia has done everything to preserve Ukraine’s territorial integrity. But it was all in vain.”
February 21, 2022

Relations between Russia and NATO continued to deteriorate as cooperation between the bloc’s leader, the US, and other members, grew increasingly close, especially in military terms. In December 2021, Moscow made one last attempt to resolve tensions through diplomacy – it sent a proposal to NATO and the US to conclude an agreement that would include security guarantees for Russia. Moscow sought an official document from NATO, stating that it would cease its expansion, refrain from establishing military bases in former Soviet countries and end military activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the south Caucasus, and Central Asia. Additionally, Russia wanted written confirmation that NATO did not view it as an enemy and was willing to address all disputes through dialogue.

These proposals were rejected. On February 21, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech in which he declared that Moscow would no longer make unilateral concessions to the West or Ukraine, which for decades had ignored gestures of goodwill and pursued an anti-Russia policy. The first step toward ensuring Russia's national security was the decision to recognize the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, where a bloody conflict between the local authorities and Kiev’s forces had been raging for eight years.

Why the military operation started: “They did not leave us any other option for defending Russia and our people, other than the one we are forced to use today.”
February 24, 2022

Three days later, Vladimir Putin made the decision to send troops into Ukraine. The Supreme Commander set a clear objective for the Russian Armed Forces: to “denazify and demilitarize” a country that, as long as it remains hostile, is an existential threat to Russia. In his address to the Russian people, Putin explained that the action was an extreme measure that the Kremlin was forced to take because of the impunity of the US and its decades-long disregard for anyone else’s interests other than its own. Putin made it unmistakably clear that the red line had been crossed and Russia would not retreat, since failure to act could lead to even more catastrophic consequences.

The consequences of the referendums in Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye: “The West does not have any moral right to weigh in, or even utter a word about freedom of democracy.”
September 30, 2022

In September of that year, votes were held in regions that the Russian army had liberated from Kiev’s control. Announcing the incorporation of these new territories into the Russian Federation, Putin stated that Russia would never become a colony of the West or submit to anyone's diktats, and called on the global majority to resist this tyranny.

The dawn of a multipolar world: “Sovereignty cannot be viewed as something that can be achieved once and for all. It is something that you must fight for all the time.”
July 28, 2023

Two years into the Ukraine conflict, relations between Russia and the West have sunk to their lowest point in decades. However, Washington's efforts to isolate Moscow have failed. On the contrary, Russia is forging stronger ties in states in Asia, Africa, and other world regions. Just as 25 years ago, the Russian government is ready to engage in a dialogue on equal terms with anyone who is willing to reciprocate. Putin is communicating his perspective to all who are willing to listen – whether it’s the Global South or individual nations in the West that question how the situation has reached its current point.

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