A Typical Example of Washington Think
I want to share with you an example of the thinking among the policy and economic elite in Washington with respect to the escalating war between Israel and Hezbollah. Believe it or not, I consider this person a friend, but I also believe he is dead wrong. But this person is not an isolated voice. What this person writes reflects, I believe, a wide consensus among the American Jewish community and many Washington politicians.
My friend writes:
The world is now possibly only days away from all out war in the Mideast and then what. Israel is now not backing off until they achieve full victory over Hezbollah. Biden Harris and the US are now irrelevant. As Israel showed in Rafah, they do not care what some old man in the White House thinks and they also do not care what Kamala thinks. They already know, and that is possibly why they are going for it now. They can’t risk what might happen if Kamala wins. Just like all the bad guys acted, while Joe is president, because they could not wait until maybe Trump wins.
Iran has to get directly involved to save Hezbollah or they lose all credibility and lose all influence. I am guessing Israel hopes Iran comes in so they have an excuse to take out the nuke facilities and the oil fields and possibly can foment an uprising while Israel blows up the IRG.. Israel is already effectively destroying thousands of Hezbollah missiles and drones on the ground and they have just begun. When they knocked out the comms and made everyone afraid of devices and then they killed most of the top commanders, Hezbollah was left confused and in many ways ineffective. Nobody has the airpower to stop Israel, and the underground bunkers, as in Gaza, have been shown to be able to be bombed effectively and precisely. I am betting Israel has more surprises ready to go and more top Hezbollah commanders about to be killed.
We are now at the most dangerous moment since 1945. Will Iran come in. Will Russia do anything-doubtful as they have their hands full. China is not going to go to war with Israel and risk US direct involvement.
The problem with this thinking is that it assumes that Israel can operate with impunity against Iran and will pay no consequences. I believe that is a very dangerous and foolish assumption. An attack on Iran of the scale described by my friend, could result in Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, at least those carrying oil to non-BRICS nations.
My friend is correct about the power vacuum that now exists in Washington, DC. It appears that there is no adult in charge, at least with respect to reining in Israel. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reportedly is cautioning Israel not to invade Lebanon. Haaretz reports:
Israel sent the U.S. administration messages over the past few days, explaining that it had decided to ramp up its assaults on Hezbollahin a bid to push the terrorist organization to agree to halting the fighting along Israel’s northern border.
This position was presented mostly by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who is in ongoing contact with his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin. Washington did not express opposition, but is also not convinced that the move will succeed. In one of his conversations with Gallant over the past few days, Austin expressed concern that Israel’s move would lead to an escalation that would last for weeks if not months.
Alastair Crooke provided some valuable insight into the booby-trapped pagers and walkie talkies. According to Alastair, Hezbollah has been using fiber optic networks for its military communications since at least 2006. He believes that most of the pagers/walkie talkies were given to the social services side of Hezbollah operations. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is a separate governing body that provides social services, education and health care. Alastair believes that most of the casualties were civilian and that the attack did little to disrupt Hezbollah’s military capabilities.
I discussed these issues, as well as the collapse of the Ukrainian front, with Judge Napolitano and Nima.
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