India – Pakistan: after the terrorist attack in Kashmir (Update)
Short Notes: Kashmir has always had a romantic ring to me. I’m not sure if I saw a movie or read a book, or if it is only the name that rings as a special place. Did the Beatles or someone important visit Kashmir? Was there a famous movie?
By today, I expected the anger to have dissipated after the terrorist attack and the series of tit-for-tat actions by both India and Pakistan, yet seemingly it is only escalating. There is also something wrong. Looking at the commentary from both India and Pakistan and specifically commentary from people like Tulsi Gabbard, a real war may be brewing yet again. The split of west to RoW is clearly visible and a well known destabilization playbook is appearing.
Tulsi Gabbard:
“With You As You Hunt Down…”: US Spy Chief To PM Modi On Kashmir Attack
The US spy chief extended Washington’s full support to New Delhi and told Prime Minister Modi that “We are with you and support you as you hunt down those responsible for this heinous attack.”
The moment we see religiously motivated terror, we can with a high level of confidence already say that the war talks are being manufactured.
Twenty-six people, including a foreign national, were shot dead by terrorists after they were asked to prove their allegiance to Islam. The targeted killings, which were religiously-motivated, have been condemned globally. Kashmiris protested throughout the Union Territory condemning terror and blaming Pakistan for it, while fellow Indians were equally infuriated over the cowardly act.
After a thorough search through the media, I see a media push to blame Pakistan and to support India. What is missing in the overall media, is who was killed? Were they only Indian? This piece of data is not easily found and if you find it, it is described as a bus full of tourists. Dig deeper and you see they were all male: so, a group of all male touristsfrom various areas.
Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, stated on Monday that a military incursion by neighboring India was imminent. “We have reinforced our forces because it is something which is imminent now. So in that situation, some strategic decisions have to be taken, and those decisions have been made,” Asif said during an interview at his office in Islamabad.
Asif highlighted that India’s rhetoric had been escalating, and Pakistan’s military had briefed the government on the potential for an Indian attack.
Here is something that we could not see coming:
Erdogan rushes to help
Yesterday, internet users recorded an unusual flight: a Turkish C-130 transport plane arrived in Pakistan. Later, Turkey announced (https://www.turkiyegazetesi.com.tr/gundem/kesmirde-savas-gerilimi-turkiye-pakistana-6-ucak-dolusu-silah-gonderdi-1111690) that six flights were sent to Pakistan to provide military assistance.
Turkey and Pakistan’s cooperation is not new, as the countries are actively developing relations in various areas – not only in military-technical, but also in economic and cultural.
At one point after the Nagorno-Karabakh war and the start of India-Armenia cooperation, there were even rumors that the Indians decided to balance the activity of the “Türkiye – Azerbaijan – Pakistan” triangle in the Caucasus.
Pakistanis are purchasing drones and guided weapons from the Turks. For example, the Pakistanis have contracts for Akıncı, Anka, and Bayraktar UAVs, as well as various modifications of MAM bombs.
And it is logical to assume that, against the backdrop of escalating tensions and the concentration of resources on the border with India, Islamabad requested accelerated deliveries of certain positions in case of a clash.
Ergodan rushes in to help with weapons. Clearly, the talk is war talk. Iran offered mediation but I’ve not seen anyone accept this. I do not see any de-escalation.
We can start thinking of the war on BRICS, as well as the continual escalation of western forces against the world. There is something wrong here. In this all-male tourist bus where the passengers are described as on vacation. was a just married 26-year-old lieutenant of the Indian Navy, all alone, without his new wife. One was from Nepal.
I am not citing the Hindustan Times as authoritative, I’m citing them because they are one of the very few that describe who was killed. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pahalgam-attack-who-are-the-26-people-shot-dead-by-terrorists-full-list-101745397115435.html
UPDATE: Russia is de-escalating:
On April 28, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko met (https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2012232/) with India’s Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar.
The Officials discussed current bilateral issues and the schedule of upcoming political contacts, as well as the general situation in the South Asian region, including the escalation of tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad following the terrorist attack near Pahalgam in Kashmir.
Russia’s readiness to counter the global terrorist threat together with India was reaffirmed.
(We need to draw something out of the language: We will together counter a terrorist threat which is global .. and what is not said in public, is that we don’t counter our neighbor. I am very sure that message went through in perfect diplospeak, but in reality, this was a reminder to India of what they have to lose.)
On April 28, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko received (https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2012250/) Pakistan’s Ambassador to Russia Muhammad Khalid Jamali at his request.
During the meeting, the Parties discussed various aspects of bilateral cooperation, as well as the escalation of tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi following the terrorist attack in Kashmir on April 22.
The Russian side called on both parties to exercise restraint and engage in constructive dialogue aimed at peacefully resolving their discrepancies.
(This was quite normal diplo speak.)
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