Israel swings between plans to occupy Gaza and resuming ceasefire talks
In a new attempt to revive ceasefire talks over the war in Gaza, Egyptian officials held talks on Tuesday with representatives of Hamas in Cairo. The Hamas delegation, headed by its politburo chief Khalil al-Hayyeh, was invited by Egypt to discuss the possibility of a partial 60-day ceasefire deal with Israel. The talks come more than two weeks after the collapse of the last round of negotiations, when Israel and the U.S. pulled out unexpectedly despite reports of progress.
That was in late July, when the talks in Qatar reportedly achieved an unprecedented breakthrough, to the point that the Israeli public broadcaster quoted an unnamed Israeli official in early August as saying that Israel and Hamas were “one step away” from a partial ceasefire deal.
But things took an unexpected turn when Israel first called back its negotiating team “for consultation.” Then, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff claimed that Hamas’s response to the latest version of the proposed deal was “unacceptable,” despite reports that Israeli officials had said Hamas’s position could be “built upon.” The fate of that round of negotiations was sealed when U.S. President Trump commented that Hamas “don’t want a deal, they want to die.”
That was the green light Israel needed to expand military operations in Gaza, going into areas where the Israeli army had not sent ground forces throughout the war despite bombing them relentlessly.
Just last week, the Israeli cabinet approved a plan to occupy Gaza City by next October. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that plans were underway when both stated that “it is up to Israel” whether to occupy Gaza.
But the green light Washington gave Tel Aviv wasn’t received so well by the Israeli army, whose Chief of Staff voiced his strong opposition to the occupation of Gaza City and the Mawasi area of Khan Younis, arguing that the operation would be too costly with no clear purpose. Army officials have highlighted the lack of resources, especially reserve personnel, to pull off an occupation of these areas, let alone run it.
The families of the remaining Israeli captives in Gaza have also voiced their opposition, even calling for a general strike next Sunday to call for an immediate ceasefire and a deal that would release the captives. Large sectors of Israeli society have already announced that they will take part in the strike, including major Israeli universities, although the main Israeli trade union, the Histadrust, decided not to join.
Plan to wipe out Gaza, or a negotiating tactic?
Despite the drums sounding for finishing the wholesale destruction of Gaza, the doors for a deal appear to remain open, with hardline Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the main cheerleader for taking over the Strip, suprisingly voicing his opposition to the new plan — arguing that it isn’t really aiming to completely destroy Gaza as Netanyahu had promised him, but rather just to get better negotiating terms.
On Wednesday, Israel’s willingness to resume negotiations was confirmed when Axios reported that a negotiating team might be sent back to Qatar, despite Netanyahu’s statement on the same day to Israeli channel i24 that he “wants to release all hostages within the framework of an end of the war under terms defined by us,” stressing that a partial deal “is behind us.”
Israel’s Channel 12 also quoted an unnamed Israeli official saying that Israel was looking for a comprehensive deal that would end the war, not a partial one that would leave negotiations over the terms of ending the war open. But such a comprehensive deal on the Israeli side would require the complete disarmament of Hamas and handing over its administration of Gaza to an independent body that doesn’t belong to the Palestinian Authority. While Hamas has consistently agreed to the latter condition, it has repeatedly said that disarming is a “red line” and that it would only give up its weapons with the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Israel’s conditions for disarmament, therefore, can only be interpreted as a way of tanking negotiations before getting off the ground.
Such an interpretation has its reasons too. On Tuesday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty announced a new plan for postwar reconstruction in Gaza, which would entail forming an independent technocratic committee of 15 Palestinian figures to run Gaza after the war. Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot recently reported that Palestinian businessman Samir Hleileh was being discussed by several countries as a potential candidate to head the technocratic committee. Less than an hour after the Egyptian foreign Minister’s announcement following the meeting of Egyptian officials with Hamas leaders, the Israeli army announced that it was preparing plans for the occupation of Gaza.
As Israel swings between continuing a genocide that has begun to feel costly to its military and parts of its citizenry, its international reputation continues to take a hit despite unconditional U.S. support. In this context of increasing domestic and international isolation, Netanyahu is scrambling to appeal to the most extreme and fanatic sectors of the Israeli far right. In his interview with i24 on Wednesday, the Israeli Prime Minister admitted that he feels he is “on a spiritual and historical mission” and that he “believes very much in the vision of a Greater Israel.”
“Greater Israel” is the maximalist Zionist version of a Biblical Israel with territory spanning parts of Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
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