Yemen: The Place with No Return
Yemen was called âArabia Felixâ (Happy Arabia) in ancient times and was famous for its rich trade in spices, incense and precious stones. However, even the Roman Empire could not establish full dominance in these lands. The Ottoman Empire also ruled Yemen for two periods, from 1517â1636 and from 1849â1918. The main reason for his withdrawal from Yemen in 1636 was rebellions. Although it held on to the region again after 1849, it had to leave these lands at the end of the First World War. It was a country known for constant wars and rebellions during two different Ottoman periods. It was a strategic peninsula that protected the holy Hijaz peninsula from the sea, controlling the entrance to the Bab El Mandeb Strait. It was the place where hundreds of thousands of Turkish soldiers were martyred throughout the centuries.
Yemenis have been known for their resistance to various empires throughout history. They are not a group of people who have accepted to be under the influence of any power, including the Ottomans. Undoubtedly, the main factor that makes this resistance different is its geography. Yemenâs mountainous and rugged terrain has always made it difficult for foreign powers to control the region. This difficult geography has given Yemenis an advantage in defense and prevented the advance of the occupying forces.
Today, the main reason for the ineffectiveness of American and British bombers and cruise missiles against selected targets is mountainous geography. In the harsh climate of tribal and feudal lifestyle, the strong hierarchy of social solidarity allows the development of different strategies. These lands, which continued their political life as post-Ottoman North and South Yemen, were united in 1990 and entered a spiral of civil war that lasted for a long time because of the Arab Spring that started in 2011. As a result of the riots, President Ali Abdullah Saleh was forced to hand over his post to his deputy, Mansur Hadi. However, Hadi could not prevent the Shiite Muslim separatist movements (Houthis) in the north. The Houthis captured the capital Sanaâa in 2015.
On March 26, 2015, the Saudi regime launched a naval blockade and aerial bombardment campaign against Yemen, along with eight other Sunni Arab countries, to stop the rise of Yemeni Shiites (Houthis), whom it saw as a major threat to Wahhabi tyranny and thus to its internal stability. Thus, with the help of Hadiâs forces, the Sunni southern tribes, with the support of the Arab coalition, retook Aden, where a provisional government could be established. Britain, the United States and France also assisted in the Saudi-led coalition operation to stop the Houthis, who are allegedly receiving aid from Iran, with target intelligence support and refueling aircraft. Despite these developments, the separatist Houthis did not leave the capital Sanaâa and were able to fire ballistic missiles at the Saudi capital Riyadh in November 2017. In the days following this event, the government forces that controlled the south also began to fight among themselves.
On the other hand, after 2015, there were three major UN peace initiatives, but all of them failed. In this messy situation, civilians continued to die and suffer. Yemen is still the poorest country in the Arab world. In the civil war that has been going on since 2015, 10,000 civilians, including 4,000 children, have been killed and 53,000 injured. Three million Yemenis have fled their homes. Currently, 17 million Yemenis are food insecure, and eight million depend on United Nations food aid. Yemen ranks first in the world in infant mortality. Due to the blockade, food and fuel are allowed in very limited ways. Since water in the country is usually extracted from the underground with pumps, there is no water when there is no fuel. U.N. officials have described the situation in Yemen as âthe worst humanitarian disaster in decades.â
The Houthisâ Acquaintance with the Sea
Yemen, the happy land of Arabia, has today become a symbol of constant war, as well as a resistance that is watched with astonishment and admiration all over the world. Today, Yemen is a divided country and dominated by civil war. The capital Sanaa and the eastern shores of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait which located between Yemen and Djibouti, which is 25 km wide at its narrowest point, are controlled by the Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthis.
We can say that the Yemeni Houthis are the only people who have responded to the Israeli massacre in Gaza through the firepower and resistance. These poor people never give up.
Another important feature of the Houthis was that they carried the war to the sea due to the blockade imposed on their ports. On March 30, 2015, the Saudis imposed a naval blockade on the Houthis, and for the first time, the Iranian Navy indirectly showed that it was on the side of the Houthis by sending warships to the region. The Houthisâ Sea orientation began after this date.
During the height of the civil war, the Houthis fired a missile at a Saudi corvette off the coast of Hudaydah on January 31, 2017. On February 5, 2017, he again attacked a Saudi frigate with a suicide boat. On April 2, 2018, they carried out precise attacks on a Saudi tanker in the same area with guided missiles. On June 12, 2018, they conducted a fatal missile attack against the UAEâs catamaran type fast support ship, which was bringing troops and ammunition to the strategic Port of Hudaydah under the control of the Houthis. They also carried out foru separate attacks on the warships of the Saudi coalition with remote-controlled boats from June 2017 to the end of 2018.
On July 27, 2018, Saudi Arabia announced a ban on the passage of Saudi tankers through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Personnel safety and environmental risk were cited as the reasons. Although the Saudi Navy had the support of eight Sunni Arab states and the Saudi Air Force in its naval blockade against Yemen, it was not successful against the Houthis, who were supported by Iran. The Houthis, affiliated with the Ansarallah organization, first attacked the Israeli port city of Eilat on the Red Sea, with 2000 km range with drones in November 2023 during the Gaza War. Then, they started to attack Israeli-flagged/owned ships using Bab al-Mandeb with missiles, armed drones and surface vehicles, taking advantage of the military geography caused by the narrow nature of the strait. The Houthis also seized an Israeli-flagged ship named Galaxy Leader in November 2023, holding sailors from Bulgaria, Mexico, the Philippines, Romania, and Ukraine captive for 14 months.
On November 25, 2023, there was an even bigger surprise. Thousands of miles away from Yemen, off the coast of Sri Lanka, in the Indian Ocean, an attack was carried out with an unmanned aerial vehicle on the M/V Kalandra belonging to the Israeli company ZIM. On December 9, 2023, the Houthis expanded their offensive targets, declaring that all ships heading to Israeli ports were targets.
Countermeasures Are Beginning
On December 18, 2023, the United States announced the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, which will provide protection to merchant ships in the region. They received support from Bahrain, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain. On December 19, 2023, the US, EU, NATO, Australia, Bahamas, Japan, Liberia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Singapore condemned the Houthi attacks in a joint statement in the UN. When the Houthi attacks did not stop, the same countries threatened to use weapons against the Houthis on January 3, 2024.
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Map showing the location of the Gulf of Aden, located between Yemen and Somalia. Nearby bodies of water include the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. (Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0)
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On January 10, 2024, the United Nations issued Security Council Resolution 2722 warning the Houthis to stop their attacks. As a result of this process, the USA and Britain launched the âPoseidon Archerâ operation on January 13, 2024, and started to hit the ground targets of the Houthis with cruise missiles and air power. Before the start of this operation, 15 ships were attacked by the Houthi, six ships were damaged by missiles, and one ship was hijacked.
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A missile being launched from a U.S. Navy vessel, prior to the 2024 Yemeni airstrikes. (Public Domain)
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On the other hand, the joint operation of the USA and UK increased the attacks instead of reducing them. After Poseidon Archer, there were 27 more Houthi attacks until the end of March 2024, and 12 ships were damaged in these attacks. On February 20, 2024, the European Union launched Operation âAspidesâ for escort and protection at sea. France, Italy, Germany, Greece and Belgium participated in this operation. Despite the punitive and neutralization operations, there has been no decrease in Houthi attacks. Between March and July 2024, there were close to 100 attempts. Despite the intensification of air strikes on Yemen and the support of the Israeli Air Force, the Greek merchant ship Tutor sank on June 12, 2024. On the other hand, the Houthis have stepped up their attacks after every destructive move by Israel in Gaza. On July 19, 2024, the Houthis hit Tel Aviv with an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, revealing the Houthisâ unusual capability. The fact that a target was hit in the Eastern Mediterranean shows that the Houthis can provide long-range firepower.
How Do the Houthis Affect Maritime Trade?
The attacks carried out by the Yemeni Houthis, who do not have a navy and warplanes, in the Red Sea and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait of the Gulf of Aden since December 2023 continue to cause a serious crisis. To show solidarity with Hamas and end Israelâs military operations in Gaza, the Houthis attack US Navy ships and other countriesâ merchant ships passing through the Red Sea with armed drones and missiles almost daily. There are many lessons to be learned from the effects of these asymmetrical air strikes for the future of conventional naval warfare.
Modern air defense destroyers/frigates of Western navies have eliminated most of the rocket/missile/UCAV attacks, thanks to their three-stage (long range, medium range and point air defense) systems. However, they still did not achieve 100 percent success. Because the ammunition used is very expensive and the logistics integration takes a long time, there is a gap between the cost of Yemenâs ground-fired missiles and the cost of air defense missiles used on modern warships. The weapons used by Yemen are expressed in thousands of dollars, while the interceptor missiles used by the western navies are expressed in millions of dollars.
For the first time, American sailors felt unsafe at sea. Speaking to the AP Agency in 2024, an American naval pilot serving on the aircraft carrier notes:
âMost of the sailors were not used to having fire fired on them, given the countryâs military engagements in recent years⊠The Red Sea Experience was incredibly different, traumatic for the crew and something we didnât think much about⊠It may be a new experience, but the U.S. Navy will have to adapt immediately and permanently.â
The Houthi attacks were sometimes seen at the last moment. Often these attacks penetrated multiple layers of the shipâs defenses, unprecedented in modern history. The AP Agency reports that many sailors âsaw the missiles launched by the Houthis seconds before they were destroyed by the defense systems of their ships.â A U.S. official told CNN that the US destroyer USS Gravely on patrol was able to intercept the approaching Houthi cruise missile with its Phalanx (CIWS), which is ultimately a last-ditch defensive weapon after that missile bypassed multi-stage air defense systems. The basic lesson is that both UCAVs and missiles of various types can prevent the freedom of movement of very powerful navies at sea. The U.S. has been unable to secure the global flow of maritime commercial traffic for the last 16 months in the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. US Navy can no longer change the situation of navigational safety, which is still at great risk. In 2022, 50 ships used to pass through this strait every day, with seven million barrels of oil and 1.2 billion cubic meters liquefied natural gas (LNG).
The Economist estimates that because of the Houthi attacks, shipments via the Red Sea have dropped by 70 percent, with many firms opting for the route around South Africaâs Cape of Good Hope, adding about 3,500 nautical miles and at least ten days of travel time. This is the biggest disruption to international trade since Covid-19. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) reports that the interests of at least 65 countries have been affected by the post-November 2023 Houthi actions, and that at least 29 major energy and transportation companies have diverted to avoid Houthi attacks.
U.S. Attitude Change
When the Houthis first began attacking ships in the Red Sea in November 2023, the U.S. took a relatively measured approach. In response to the attacks, U.S. President Joe Biden did not designate the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and imposed tight restrictions on the U.S. Navyâs ability to target Houthi leaders and infrastructure. The administration feared a regional escalation that could pit U.S. partners against each other and a return to Yemenâs deadlocked civil war with significant humanitarian consequences.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies reports that the United States and its partners have struck the Houthis more than 260 times during the Biden era. However, these attacks aimed rather the Houthi military equipment, which is used to target merchant ships in the Red Sea than to destroy the Houthi leadership and bases. These operations slowed the Houthisâ operational tempo and destroyed a significant portion of their stockpiles of long-range weapons but did not put an end to the Houthisâ Red Sea campaign.
As a president who wants to end American wars and be remembered for peace after 2025, Trump has not only allowed Israel to continue the Gaza War but has also launched intense air and missile attacks on western and northern Yemen. In his first message, Trump told the Houthis,
âYour time is upâŠIf you donât stop the attacks, hell will rain down on you like youâve never seen before.â
Trump also issued a warning to Iran, saying that support for the Houthis must end now, adding,
âAmerica will hold you fully accountable, and we will not be nice about it!â
There are various reasons why a president like Trump, who repeatedly emphasized during his first presidency that he would stay out of the Middle East quagmire, changes his mind quickly. At the time of writing, the attacks were continuing. The Houthisâ foreign minister told Reuters that they now see themselves at war with the United States. Around the same time, Trump asked the U.S. Senate for authorization to attack Iran. The aim of the attacks in Yemen, where civilian casualties are high, is to eliminate the threat posed by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Bab al-Mandeb and the sea route through the Red Sea. The military objective of the operation is to eliminate the Houthisâ ability to attack the ships. Its political goal is to provide deterrence by sending an indirect message to Iran with the firepower applied over Yemen, while providing public support for the Netanyahu government in Israel. These goals are difficult to achieve in the short and medium terms. It is very, very difficult to achieve the military goal without a ground operation.
Micheal Fromann, the CFR (Council of Foreign Relations) President, said in a recent article:
âToday, the Iranian-backed Ansarallah in Yemen, popularly known as the Houthis, poses the formidable challenge to the maritime hegemony of the United States and its allies since we confronted the Imperial Japanese Navy on the Pacific Theater of World War II.â
This is an important statement that should be taken seriously. It is a confession. The basis of American hegemony was to control the global maritime trade routes and the choke points through which these routes passed. Today, this crossing is being challenged in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The same is true for Israeli trade. The fact that the Houthis do not attack ships carrying cargo linked to China and Russia is also unacceptable in the eyes of the United States. Because this is not only an attack on its global dominance, but also an example to be applied in other choke points of the world. Let us remind you that about 60 percent of all Chinaâs exports to Europe pass through the Red Sea. The share of Chinese shipping companies in Suez traffic has increased by about 25 percent since October 2023. The Suez Canal is also a critical route for the Russian economy. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil exports from Russia accounted for almost 70 percent of Suezâs southbound oil traffic in 2023, up from 23 percent in 2021, which was largely destined for India and China.
On the other hand, China and Russiaâs support for the Houthis extends to the abstention of both countries in the January 2024 UN Security Council resolution backed by the United States and Japan, condemning the Houthisâ attacks on the ships. In this context, one of the reasons why Trump left Ukraine is that he could not prevent the breaches in the maritime transportation network for various reasons. The northern route opened in the Arctic under Russian control turned all equations upside down. In the light of these developments, the reason for Trumpâs claims about the Panama Canal, Greenland and Canada, as well as the air strikes launched against the Houthis at the beginning of the week, is understandable.
On the other hand, Chinaâs reduction of its dependence on the Strait of Malacca with the BRI (Belt and Road) initiative and the questioning of the reliability of the USA in the defense liabilities of countries such as Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Australia in the Far East after the Ukraine experience will inevitably affect future alliance structures. One purpose of these attacks on the Houthis is a manifestation of their determination to protect and control the choke points. In the meantime, it is important that the order list of at least 50 billion dollars that the US arms industry needs every year is filled. The U.S. should have opened new windows of opportunity for the arms sector as it withdrew from Ukraine. The Houthis are a battlefield where the risk will be minimal, but the consumption of ammunition will be high, especially the expensive air defense systems of the ships. Therefore, although Trump says peace, the main goal is to achieve peace through force. This, in turn, will continue to be the main factor stimulating the highly profitable defense industry.
Why Do the Houthis Succeed?
Since Oct. 7, 2023, the Houthis, initially considered a primitive militia, have rapidly acquired, developed, and deployed advanced military technologies to target merchant and warships. The arsenal, which was smuggled into the country through various routes from Iranian and pro-Iranian suppliers, now includes many modified anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned surface vehicles.
According to research by the Financial Times, the Houthis have Palestine 2 and Hatem 2 hypersonic missiles; Burkan and Karrar ballistic missiles; Mandab 2, Kuds 4 cruise missiles; They have Mohit, P15 Termit and Asef 2 anti-ship missiles with ranges ranging from 40 km to 2150 km. In addition to this inventory, the Houthis have 6 types of armed drone systems with a range ranging from 150 km to 2600 km. (Jaffa, Samad 3/4, Qasaf 1/2, Wahid and Mirsat1/2.)
The Houthis have learned to assemble and modify these weapons with more advanced guidance systems in secret arsenals in northern and eastern Yemen, often buried deep underground, and to track and target merchant ships using radar, satellite imagery, publicly available (AIS) ship transponder data, and other means. As a result, the Houthis learned and practiced asymmetric naval warfare, including the use of an anti-ship ballistic missile for the first time in early 2024.
According to Pentagon statistics, the Houthis have targeted U.S. warships more than 170 times and commercial vessels with different flags 145 times. Although the Houthis have not yet hit a US warship, they have sunk two commercial ships. In the article titled âDestroying Houthi and Iranian missiles cost the US $1 billionâ by Peter Suciu in the American magazine The National Interest dated April 17, 2024, the US Secretary of the Navy at the time, Del Toro, was quoted with the statements he made in Congress. The Secretary said:
âWe have reacted more than 130 direct attacks on US Navy and merchant ships. Over the past six months, the Navy has fired nearly $1 billion worth of air defense missiles to counter air threats from Iran and its proxies.â
Del Toro underlined the financial pressure this situation has put on naval stockpiles, stressing the urgent need for additional financing of $2 billion in the short term and $95 billion later to replenish ammunition. A U.S. congressional official said:
âThese are really expensive munitions to hit lousy Houthi targets⊠It takes months to replace each one and costs a lot of money.â
Will the Yemen Intervention Extend to Iran?
Today, 1,600 containers are either loaded or unloaded on ships worldwide every minute. Or 5.5 million tons of oil are transported by sea every day. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea routes in this functioning order will create a chain of deteriorations in other areas. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait has already disrupted operations by 70%. If the American and Israeli intervention in Iran creates a similar disruption in Hormuz, the world economy will not be able to afford it.
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MV Rubymar sinks in the Red Sea on 2 March 2024 (Public Domain)
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With the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Houthis are emerging as the most dynamic and powerful of Iranâs proxies and continue to pose a serious threat to US interests in the region. However, the Houthisâ assault on global trade and allied navies has not been effective in disturbing Israelâs grand strategic goals in Gaza. On the contrary, Israeli attacks and ground operations in Gaza have resumed in full force and without a clear path to restore the ceasefire. With Iran backing down due to increasing American threats and Trumpâs determination to use all the capabilities of the US navy against the Houthis, Ansarallahâs position in the Red Sea could be weakened. But it does not end without a land invasion. As a result, the U.S. reputation for protecting freedom of navigation, which is central to global maritime leadership, remains under serious threat.
On the other hand, considering the scenarios of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 15 million barrels of oil pass per day, by Iran, along with the Red Sea has already turned into an ongoing dangerous zone is a real blow to American maritime geopolitics. Aside from the fact that Iranâs support for the Houthis continues to increase, Iranâs increasing strategic cooperation with Russia and China makes the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, which are under Iranâs direct and indirect influence, the soft underbelly of the US and the EU in the global power struggle.
If the Iran-Israel and Iran-US conflict begins, world maritime trade will lose commercial traffic in the two straits that play the most important role in energy supply. The consequences of this loss cannot be borne by the US, the EU and its partners in the Far East. A continuation of this threat would also be devastating for states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which aspire to become global logistics hubs. If the U.S. continues to protect Israel in this conjuncture, where conditions have turned into chaos, then anti-U.S. states such as Russia and China will try every way to disrupt global maritime trade. Disrupted global maritime trade will lead to a loss of power and prestige for the United States, which has claimed to dominate the oceans since 1945. The American reputation, which is already crawling on the ground, will bleed much more. The Houthis will contribute to this process under all circumstances. It is also troublesome and difficult for the United States to prevent this because it is not easy to stop the Houthis if there is no land invasion.
If the U.S. continues to applaud Israel in Congress, the geopolitical turmoil it faces will grow. The question is who will decide the geopolitical priorities of the United States. If American democracy and the electoral process are conducted through Jewish finances, it is clear who decides these priorities. The Houthis have further increased their trump cards on the ground with the moral impact of these successes and the new tactics and techniques they have developed.
As I have repeated from the beginning, it is not possible to destroy the asymmetrical naval warfare capability that the Houthis have developed in the last 20 years without an invasion with a ground operation.
The question is: Can the United States and its inseparable allies, Israel and UK, launch a military invasion of Yemen? Can Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states be persuaded to wage a proxy war again?
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Ret Admiral Cem GĂŒrdeniz, Writer, Geopolitical Expert, Theorist and creator of the Turkish Bluehomeland (Mavi Vatan) doctrine. He served as the Chief of Strategy Department and then the head of Plans and Policy Division in Turkish Naval Forces Headquarters. As his combat duties, he has served as the commander of Amphibious Ships Group and Mine Fleet between 2007 and 2009. He retired in 2012. He established Hamit Naci Blue Homeland Foundation in 2021. He has published numerous books on geopolitics, maritime strategy, maritime history and maritime culture. He is also a honorary member of ATASAM.
He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
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